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Austria is already well positioned to seize on the growth of the electric vehicle market and the future of e-mobility
With a history dating back to the Roman Empire, Austria's mining industry is firmly rooted in tradition. This means that in addition to extensive pre-established infrastructure, there is also a great deal of community and government support in the region. Austria's mature environment, strategic location and industry-friendly political climate make it an ideal investment target.
Austria extracts approximately 80 million tonnes of material resources from its mines each year. As of 2020, the sector employed roughly 4,200 people across mining and production. Austria is also the fifth largest producer of magnesite in the world, and a key producer of graphite for the European market.
Austria is noteworthy for having the largest underground tungsten ore deposit in the world, the largest siderite deposits in the world and the largest talcum deposit in Central Europe. It is also the site of a major lithium deposit. However, it's important to note that mining is currently not a major contributor to Austria's annual gross domestic product, representing just $7.1 billion of $371.8 billion in 2016. The country largely relies on imports from trade partners for most metals, as well as for fossil fuels.
Austria remains a highly promising strategic investment for a multitude of reasons.
The outlook for lithium
As electrification and clean energy continue to gain ground in the EU, demand for lithium, one of the core metals involved in electric vehicle production, has increased exponentially. In 2021 alone, lithium prices skyrocketed, rising by nearly 500 percent. It has been estimated that if supply does not increase significantly, an imbalance might hit as early as 2027.
"There's a growing disconnect between available supply and surging demand," explained Ken Brinsden, chief executive of Australian mining company Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS,OTC Pink:PILBF) "There aren’t enough projects that have been invested in the previous years that could come online. The short term response is definitely going to be tight. If only we had three years ago another mine fully funded when prices were low we would be in balance this year."
Because it is home to one of the last remaining graphite mines in the Alps and hosts multiple major automotive manufacturers, Austria is already well positioned to seize on the growth of the electric vehicle market and the future of e-mobility.What is the current state of mining in Austria?
From a regulatory perspective, the Mineral Resources Act, which governs and regulates Austria's mining sector, is highly favourable for both domestic and foreign investors. This largely comes down to how mineral resources and deposits are classified under the act. Each deposit falls into one of the following two categories.
- Freehold: All mineral resources listed in the Austrian Mining Law (various metals, crude oil, natural gas, coal, salt, fluorspar, heavy spar and others) are withdrawn from the property owner. The freehold mineral resources have no ownership and are administered by the federal government. Ownership of them can only be acquired through a granting process controlled by the federal government.
- Freely mineable: The property owner only has the right to mine so-called property-owned mineral resources (for example, sand, gravel, gypsum, clay, roofing slate and others).
Austria's Mineral Resources Act is also noteworthy for the relatively administratively light-handed approach it takes towards exploration and discovery. To search for freehold and freely mineable resources, a business need only notify Austria's mining administration. Exploration and analysis require prospecting permits, while extraction and production require mining authorization.
While there are a few other requirements around waste management, registration and sustainability, they are all relatively straightforward to secure.
Many of Austria's towns and villages have their roots in mining as well. This has served to drive considerable innovation within the mining sector. More importantly, it means that there is no shortage of skilled labor in the region.
European Union: Critical metals and a green future
The EU participates in the European Climate and Energy Framework 2030, a program focused on practical objectives that can move the world towards net neutrality. It highlights how European solutions are needed to efficiently and cost-effectively bring security of supply and climate protection together in the energy transition. Pursuant to the European Green Deal, this continent plans to to become the first climate-neutral continent.
Economic importance and supply risk are the two most important parameters when determining criticality for the EU. The former deals in detail with the attribution of end users of raw materials on the basis of industrial applications. The latter parameter determines the concentration of global production of primary raw materials and supply to the EU at the country level, highlighting major suppliers like Austria. It also considers the governance of the supplying countries, including environmental aspects, the contribution of recycling, substitution, the EU's dependence on imports and trade restrictions in outside countries.
The European Battery Alliance, launched in October 2017 by European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič, is meant to ensure that all Europeans benefit from safer traffic, cleaner vehicles and more sustainable technological solutions. The intention is to achieve this through a localised supply chain. The economic upside is clear: the market will have an estimated annual value of up to 250 billion euros by 2025. Lithium is a critical component of this stable, sustainable supply that supports a green economy.Largest producing mines in Austria
In 2016, Austria was home to more than 1,100 mining and quarrying operations, Materials produced by Austria include iron, graphite, salt, tungsten, magnesite, limestone, gypsum, anhydrite, kaolin, talc, leucophyllum, dolomite, quartz sand and oil shale.
Erzberg
The massive Erzberg open-pit iron mine is located in Eisenerz, Styria. Operated by Voestalpine (VIE:VOE), the mine is the site of the largest iron ore deposit in Austria. Located 60 kilometres northwest of Graz and 260 kilometres southwest of Vienna, it produces approximately 2.153 million tonnes of ore a year.
Mittersill
Located 30 kilometres south of Kitzbühel, the Mittersill mine is built atop the largest scheelite deposit in the EU. Also known as the Felbertal mine, MIttersill is a major source of tungsten trioxide, producing an average of 1,200 tonnes of the mineral per year. The mine is owned by Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten, a subsidiary of Swedish multinational engineering firm Sandvik (STO:SAND).
Hallein
Bordering the city of Salzburg, the federally owned Hallein salt mine is one of the oldest active mining sites in the world. Operational for over 7,000 years, the underground mine doubles as a mining museum. In 1829, the mine actually grew large enough that it crossed over the border to neighboring Bavaria, resulting in the Bavarian-Austrian Salt Treaty.
Kaisersberg
The last active graphite mine in the Alps, the Kaisersberg mine, first began production as early as 1755. It is owned by Grafitbergbau Kaisersberg, a privately owned business based out of the town of Kaisersberg. The mine is linked directly to both local and international railway systems for more efficient delivery.
Breitenau
Located in the province of Styria in Central Austria, Breitenau is one of the largest underground magnesite mines in the world, and the largest magnesite operations in Austria. It's owned and operated by Veitsch-Radex, a subsidiary of RHI Magnesita (LSE:RHIM). Veitsch-Radex also owns two other magnesite mines in Gulsen and Millstatteralpe/Radentheim.
Current mining exploration companies in Austria
European Lithium (ASX:EUR)
European Lithium's current project, the wholly owned Wolfsberg project, is located 270 kilometres south of Austria's capital, Vienna. Just east of the industrial town of Wolfsberg, it is comprised of 22 original and 32 overlapping exploration licences and a mining licence covering 11 areas. Situated close to comprehensive existing infrastructure, the project is built atop a foundation of extensive testing, exploration, mining and prefeasibility studies conducted by prior owners.
The current resource is 9.7 million tonnes at 1 percent lithium oxide. This paves the way for a definitive feasibility study slated for Q3 2022. The company believes that the mine has potential for a lifespan of between 12 and 15 years. Based on the prefeasibility alone, the net present value is at AU$862 million, though this is expected to rise to US$1.6 billion upon the new study’s completion. The mine is expected to commence production towards the end of 2024.
Richmond Minerals (TSXV:RMD)
A mineral exploration company that has been heavily engaged in exploration projects throughout Quebec and Ontario, Richmond Minerals recently expanded its focus from Canada to Austria with the Oberzeiring polymetallic project. Comprised of 99 claims near the village of Oberzeiring, the project is located at the site of what was formerly one of the largest silver mines in the Eastern Alps.
Aurex Biomining
Based in Switzerland, Aurex Biomining was the original owner of the Oberzeiring polymetallic project before selling it to Richmond. The company also maintains a gold project of approximately 20 square kilometres near the town of Pusterwald. The company is also pioneering a unique environmentally friendly biomining process.
Takeaway
Austria's mature mining infrastructure, industry-friendly regulatory climate, role in the automotive market and emerging mining projects make the country a strong contender for future investment. As the drive for electrification continues, the region has the potential to play a pivotal role in the development of the EU's lithium supply chain. Initiatives such as European Lithium’s Wolfsberg project have the potential to help immensely in this regard, particularly given Austria's proximity to multiple operating and proposed gigafactories.
This INNSpired article is sponsored by European Lithium (ASX:EUR,FWB:PF8).This INNSpired article provides information which was sourced by the Investing News Network (INN) and approved by European Lithium in order to help investors learn more about the company. European Lithium is a client of INN. The company’s campaign fees pay for INN to create and update this INNSpired article.
This INNSpired article was written according to INN editorial standards to educate investors.
INN does not provide investment advice and the information on this profile should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. INN does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company profiled.
The information contained here is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. Readers should conduct their own research for all information publicly available concerning the company. Prior to making any investment decision, it is recommended that readers consult directly with European Lithium and seek advice from a qualified investment advisor.
VIDEO — John Kaiser: No Upside in Tesla, Lithium Juniors are the Future of the EV Story
Although the lithium market can be tricky to understand, the payoff can be substantial, said John Kaiser of Kaiser Research.
John Kaiser: No Upside in Tesla, Lithium Juniors are the Future of the EV Story youtu.be
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) may be at the center of the electric vehicle (EV) revolution, but the Elon Musk-led company has no upside left. That means investors need to look elsewhere for opportunity.
That's according to John Kaiser of Kaiser Research. Speaking at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention, he said that lithium juniors have become the place to be.
Referencing a report from Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,LSE:RIO,NYSE:RIO), Kaiser said that by 2035, roughy 1 million tonnes of lithium metal equivalent will be needed to support EV demand.
"The brines are going to come up with a big chunk, and Australia's pegmatites will add more, (but) that probably still will take care of only half," he said, noting that he expects companies working in Eastern Canada to step up.
Eastern Canada has suffered setbacks as a lithium jurisdiction due to past issues, including the downfall of Nemaska Lithium, but Kaiser said that the area is similar to Western Australia, where companies have seen success with pegmatite exploration. And in addition to that, it benefits from good access to water.
"Without this lithium becoming a reality, Tesla goes to a buck — it dies," he said.
Kaiser sees the lithium market as a gateway to the mining sector for young people, and said that although it can be tricky to understand, the payoff can be substantial.
"Play a statistics game. Look at the sector, see who's serious. Put together a basket of these lithium companies and treat it like a Silicon Valley startup portfolio where they have dozens of high-risk stories," he said, noting that while there will be failures, there will also be a handful of "superstars."
Watch the interview above for more from Kaiser on lithium and the opportunities he sees in the space. You can also click here for our recap of PDAC, and here for our full PDAC playlist on YouTube.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Housing the world's largest deposits of lithium, Chile's unique geological landscape and climate make it ideal for lithium brine extraction
As the world continues on the path towards a future dominated by clean energy, lithium's importance only continues to grow. Demand for the battery metal has already reached an all-time high, increasing by 400 percent in 2021. What's more, there is every indication that this growth will continue in 2022, with prices increasing by 126 percent in just the first quarter.
Currently, Australia and Chile are the two leading producers of lithium, respectively accounting for 46.3 percent and 23.9 percent of worldwide production. Both countries are jurisdictionally inclined to support the mining sector. However, Chile's potential could one day see it outstrip even Australia where investment is concerned.
Housing the world's largest deposits of lithium, Chile's unique geological landscape and climate makes it ideal for lithium brine extraction. The country thus has a pivotal role to play in meeting demand and establishing a stable global supply chain.
A critical component of sustainability
Climate change is an undeniable problem, one which requires a collaborative effort to address. It is for this reason that governments around the world have all agreed to pursue full climate neutrality by 2050. Because combustion engines represent an inordinate percentage of greenhouse gas emissions, replacing them with electric vehicles (EV) is essential if any nation is to achieve their sustainability goals.
Lithium is used extensively in both consumer and professional electronics. It is also a staple metal in multiple other sectors, including mining, manufacturing and energy storage.
Given its cross-sector industrial importance, the battery metal was already in high demand.
The large-scale manufacturing of electric vehicles has caused this demand to increase exponentially. As multiple automotive manufacturers construct gigafactories to ramp up EV distribution, the need for lithium is growing well beyond our current production capacity.
Investors and mining companies can benefit by turning to jurisdictions like Chile to ramp up supply. The world's migration towards a sustainable future simply cannot occur without lithium.
Lithium: Australia versus Chile
Although Australia houses impressive lithium reserves, the majority of the country's stores occur in hard rock deposits. Mining these deposits is relatively inexpensive, but hard rock lithium operations also tend to have narrow margins compared to other methods. In particular, lithium brine extraction offers higher yields, greater efficiency and a lower overall environmental impact.
Currently, the largest lithium producer in Australia is Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS,OTC Pink:PILBF). Its flagship project, the Pilgangoora operation, is situated atop one of the world's largest hard rock lithium deposits. It also jointly owns a pegmatite lithium project with Atlas Iron (ASX:AGO), the Mt Francisco project.
Geography represents Chile's first major advantage over other jurisdictions. Alongside Bolivia and Argentina, Chile lays claim to a geographic region known as the Lithium Triangle. Located in the Andes in South America, it contains an estimated 68 percent of the world's identified lithium resources.
The Lithium Triangle is home to a series of vast salt flats, beneath which sit incredibly lithium-rich brine pools. More promising still is the climate of the region, which is known for being incredibly hot and dry. This represents a considerable boon for extraction operations, which typically rely on evaporative processes.
A powerful investment opportunity
Chile's mining sector has leveraged its arid geography to great effect. The country's Salar de Atacama salt flat is the largest-producing brine deposit in the world. It is also home to several major lithium brine operations.
One of these is owned and operated by Albemarle (NYSE:ALB). Currently the largest business provider of lithium for electric vehicle batteries, Albemarle also operates a lithium carbonate plant at La Negra. According to an Albemarle spokesperson, the company has a long history in Chile backed by a unique contract.
SQM (NYSE:SQM) operates another major lithium brine operation in the salt flat. As the world's largest lithium producer overall, the company recently announced plans to reduce brine extraction in the region by 50 percent by 2030. This announcement came in tandem with a commitment to reduce water usage across all its operations by 40 percent.
Finally, just south of Salar de Atacama is situated the highest-quality lithium pre-production project in Chile. Maricunga is jointly owned by Lithium Power International (ASX:LPI), Minera Salar Blanco and Li3 Energy. Situated just 250 kilometers from Chile's coast, and 170 kilometers from the mining town of Copiapo, it's said to possess characteristics directly comparable to Atacama. Maricunga is also adjacent to Highway 31, which connects Northern Chile to Argentina.
The most significant challenge to Chile's growth, from an investment perspective, is sociopolitical. Although the country has a history of being relatively friendly towards the mining sector, its current government is exploring new legislation that could nationalize both copper and lithium. A new mining royalty bill is also in the works, which could increase tax rates by up to 80 percent.
It's worth noting that not every investor considers the current political climate to be a risk. South32 (ASX:S32), a spinoff of BHP (ASX:BHP), recently invested US$1.55 billion to purchase a 45 percent stake in the Sierra Gorda copper mine, and a lithium auction held by Chile earlier this year saw Chinese manufacturing company BYD acquire extraction rights for 80,000 metric tons of lithium.
Takeaway
Chile is home to the largest, richest and most valuable lithium deposits in the world. For many investors, the high margins and low cost of lithium extraction in Chile more than make up for the potential of a few political speed bumps.
This INNSpired article is sponsored by Lithium Power International (ASX:LPI). This INNSpired article provides information that was sourced by the Investing News Network (INN) and approved by Lithium Power International in order to help investors learn more about the company. Lithium Power International is a client of INN. The company’s campaign fees pay for INN to create and update this INNSpired article.
This INNSpired article was written according to INN editorial standards to educate investors.
INN does not provide investment advice and the information on this profile should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. INN does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company profiled.
The information contained here is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. Readers should conduct their own research for all information publicly available concerning the company. Prior to making any investment decision, it is recommended that readers consult directly with Lithium Power International and seek advice from a qualified investment advisor.
Experts in the field weigh in on Goldman Sachs' lithium oversupply call and whether they think it accurately depicts what's happening in the market.
Last week, the lithium market was shaken by a report from investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) saying that the bull market for battery metals was over for now.
Prices for lithium, which increased more than 400 percent in the past year, are expected to drop in the next two years, with a “sharp correction” happening by 2023, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
They project that lithium prices will fall from current levels to an average of just under U$54,000 this year, from an average of above U$60,000. By 2023, the bank forecast is for an average price of just over US$16,000.
There’s been “a surge in investor capital into supply investment tied to the long term EV demand story, essentially trading a spot driven commodity as a forward-looking equity,” the analysts said. “That fundamental mispricing has in turn generated an outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend.”
Analysts at the investment bank said investors are fully aware that battery metals will play a crucial role in the 21st century global economy.
“Yet despite this exponential demand profile, we see the battery metals bull market as over for now,” they said, adding that the long term prospects for the metals remain strong.
Following the report, lithium analysts and experts shared their concerns over a call that they say misses the fundamentals of this battery metal market.
Commenting on the Goldman Sachs analysts call on lithium, Rodney Hooper of RK Equity said he strongly disagrees with their findings on both supply and demand.
“My biggest issue with the report is that it will discourage upstream investment in mining,” he told the Investing News Network (INN). “We clearly haven't seen sufficient upstream investment to meet current and future demand.”
Also speaking with INN, Daniel Jimenez of iLi Markets agreed, saying analysts at the investment bank are overestimating supply and underestimating demand.
Goldman Sachs analysts are expecting a global demand of around 1.2 million metric tons (MT) of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2025.
“We think that lithium producers have better industry insights and truthful talks with most of the OEMs they supply,” Jimenez said. Top lithium producer Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) is calling for around 1.5 million MT LCE while Chinese giant Ganfeng (OTC Pink:GNENF,SZSE:002460) is expecting around 1.6 million MT during the same period.
“On the supply side they are extremely optimistic in terms of the lepidolite production that could come from China in the coming years, which is also not realistic,” Jimenez said. “Bottom line — we believe it will be just the contrary.”
Similarly, analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said the industry cannot rely on China’s feedstock to meet the needs of the market.
“Known domestic Chinese spodumene and other hard rock resources are low quality, a key reason why there has been an increasing reliance by Chinese converters on Australia for supply instead,” analysts said in a note. “China’s deposits of lepidolite may have the potential to help bridge the deficit in coming years, but are unlikely to lead to oversupply.”
Forecasting the lithium market not an easy task
Goldman Sachs analysis of the lithium market is not the first one to be called out by experts in the field. Back in early 2018, when prices had been interestingly also on the rise for a couple of years, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) predicted a decline in prices by 2021, with escalating fears of an oversupply in the market.
“We’ve seen this before, we will see it again. Goldman Sachs: you can’t just add up all the lithium mine level potential and make an oversupply call … the speciality chemicals world is more nuanced than iron ore,” Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Simon Moores said in a tweet when the recent Goldman Sachs report came out. “It’s why the world doesn’t rely on investment banks for research any more.”
Predicting how the lithium market will perform in coming years is not an easy task. As a specialty chemical, not all lithium is created equal and not all auto and battery makers' needs are the same. There have been countless constraints to bringing supply into the market, and as analysts would often point out, delays are as common for new projects as for producers expanding existing operations.
For Hooper, it is both demand and supply that some analysts usually get wrong.
“The best indicator of battery-grade demand is cathode production,” he said. “Historical analysis shows that demand linked to cathode production has the highest correlation to lithium prices — this indicator flagged a demand/supply deficit in late 2020.”
When assessing the supply side, Hooper does not consider projects until they are fully permitted, financed and under construction. And even then, he allows for a long ramp-up phase and qualification timeline, especially if it's a greenfield project.
“What happens when you use these indicators is that cathode production brings demand forward 6 months and supply adjustments push qualified material out 6 to 12 months,” he explained. “The net result is a structural deficit as analyst forecasts of the supply/demand balance in the market are out by 12 to 18 months.”
In a market like copper, that could mean a few percent of total demand, Hooper added, but in a market like lithium, growing at 30 percent, the difference is “enormous.”
Commenting on the biggest challenge for analysts to determine what will happen in lithium, Jimenez, who before iLi Markets worked at top lithium-producing company SQM (NYSE:SQM), said there is clear excess optimism in capacity increases and production ramp up times.
“Feasibility reports are, based on past experience, very optimistic,” he said. “Furthermore, the confidence that new technologies or resource types will be able to deliver are overly optimistic. In many cases we are talking of unproven technologies that have not been scaled from lab to industrial yet.”
Is the lithium market really facing oversupply?
At the end of last year, INN talked to analysts and experts on the field to get a better understanding of the outlook for lithium, with most agreeing demand would outpace supply on the back of electric vehicle (EV) sales. What has changed since then? Not much.
For Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analysts, the lithium market will remain in structural shortage until 2025.
“The lithium market will balance over the next few years, but it’s unlikely that an unprecedented ramp-up of marginal, unconventional feedstock will fill the deficit,” they said. “It is also unlikely that demand will weaken significantly.”
Similarly, iLi Markets' Jimenez doesn’t think supply will be able to catch up with demand at least until 2026 to 2027 mainly because of the difficulty to bring greenfield projects into production at full capacity.
“Over this period of time, lithium should be the limiting factor in EV sales,” he said. “Even with demand growing very strongly, the investments the industry is making today might yield additional capacity in 6 to 10 years from now that we are not able to see today.”
Another expert echoing these thoughts was RK Equity’s Hooper.
“Aggregate supply may match demand in the years to come; however, battery-grade supply qualified into the battery supply chain won't match EV demand,” he said.
“If OEMs continue to ignore battery raw material supply risks, they will pay the ultimate price soon enough. Signing meaningless binding (but not really binding) lithium offtake agreements with no associated capital flows or permitting assistance attached to them will lead to disappointment.”
As EV demand from around the world enters its rapid growth phase, lithium quality will be critical.
“We haven't seen sufficient upstream investment to cause oversupply for some time,” Hooper said. “The only way we see the market being balanced in the near future is if there is EV demand destruction and that is unlikely.”
Lithium prices expected to remain at steady levels
The lithium price rally has made news headlines around the world since 2021, with the world's largest asset manager BlackRock’s (NYSE:BLK) Evy Hambro, who is bullish on metals needed for the green energy transition, talking about the essential need for lithium into the future.
Lithium pricing is usually a common concern for investors new to the space, with experts generally reminding anyone interested in the battery metal that there’s no single lithium price. Lithium traded at spot prices only reflects a portion of the market. In fact, most lithium is locked up in contracts, which in some cases include fixed pricing.
Combined with existing contracting arrangements set in 2022, prices are very unlikely to crash in 2023 and 2024, according to Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast.
“Benchmark’s view is that contract prices are likely to continue to rise as a lagged effect of the major step-change in spot pricing over late 2021 and 2022 while spot prices will fall, with the two prices coming into more of an equilibrium than they are now,” analysts at the firm said.
Structurally, prices will remain high through 2025 to 2026, at least, iLi Markets' Jimenez said.
“Now high means above US$40 per kilo, which is significantly higher than the incentive price to develop a marginal cost greenfield project,” he said, adding that whether the price will be U$40, U$60, U$80 or U$120 is a difficult call to make.
For the expert, each year the industry will need to grow supply by 200+ kMT LCE per year, which was the total demand of 2017.
“The possibility that greenfield projects suffer delays is high,” Jimenez said. “Probably lithium units will be the bottleneck of the lithium-ion battery supply chain.”
China’s measures to contain COVID-19 have recently hit EV sales, and as a result the need for lithium, although this pullback in lithium demand is seen as temporary.
“When EV demand resumes in H2 2022, as China lifts restrictions, I expect spot and contract pricing to remain firm,” Hooper said.
Even for Wood Mackenzie analyst Allan Pedersen, who sees lithium prices declining by the end of 2022, a “sharp correction” like the one called by Goldman Sachs is not coming.
“We do not forecast a sharp correction but more a 'softer landing' as demand remains strong, providing a cushion for prices,” he told INN.
The research firm is expecting additional supply entering the supply chain both from brine and mineral concentrates to increase supply beyond demand in the short term.
“It is worth noting the surplus is fragile and small changes in electric vehicles forecasts can have a significant impact on the demand for lithium and therefore on the market balance,” he said. “We forecast that the supply surplus for battery-grade lithium chemicals will be less than the market in general as producing high quality battery grade lithium chemicals is difficult.”
Growth in the lithium industry is happening at a rapid pace, with changing market dynamics expected to emerge as a result.
“As the market wrestles between long-term supply security to fuel the lithium-ion economy, and increasingly market-led pricing mechanisms to incentivise supply growth, the era of lithium market volatility is likely just beginning,” analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said.
Lithium stocks hit — now what?
Following last week’s Goldman Sachs report, top lithium producers saw their share prices plunge. Chile’s SQM was down 5 percent, rival Albemarle declined more than 7 percent and Argentina-focused Livent (NYSE:LTHM) fell around 14 percent following the oversupply and sharp correction in price calls from the bank.
Despite the recent slump, looking at how lithium stocks have performed in the past year paints a different picture — many lithium stocks in the US, Canada and Australia have been on the rise year-on-year on the back of improved market conditions, as the price rally for the battery metal saw many investors turn to the space.
For RK Equity’s Hooper, there is still value in the current market.
“My suggestion would be to look at current or near term producers that have been hit in the latest downturn,” he said. “Shares that are pricing in spodumene or chemical prices that align with Goldman Sachs outlook — which by 2023 sees spodumene concentrate at $1,100 and lithium carbonate ex VAT at US$15.6k/t. We see 2023 average pricing well above those levels.”
Giving his best suggestion for generalist investors who have jumped to the lithium market in recent months, Hooper said they would do well to look at history and decide for themselves how supply and demand have and will evolve over time.
“Will internal combustion engine vehicles sell in any great volumes after 2025 to 2027 given legislation and consumer preferences?” he said. “Then load in a realistic long-term price for lithium chemicals and decide if the company has a low enough valuation multiple and some room for error.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
VIDEO - Green Technology Metals: Cashed Up and Pursuing Low-carbon Lithium in Ontario
General Manager Matt Herbert described Ontario as an “undiscovered gem,” and spoke about the company’s work on its lithium projects in the province.
After making its ASX debut this past November, Green Technology Metals (ASX:GT1) has been hard at work in Ontario, Canada, where it holds three projects covering 35,000 hectares.
Speaking to the Investing News Network at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention, General Manager Matt Herbert described the province as an “undiscovered gem” with the potential to contribute to the lithium supply chain in an environmentally conscious manner.
“I think the opportunity there is to create some very, very green lithium,” he said.
“At the moment, a lot of lithium is mined in Western Australia, (then) shipped to China for processing; from China it goes to European battery markets. I think by the time that lithium arrives where it’s supposed to arrive it’s left itself a bit of a carbon footprint,” Herbert explained during the conversation. “We have a real opportunity here to leverage low-carbon lithium in a place that is really screaming for security.”
Green Technology Metals has already seen support from members of the Ontario government, including recently re-elected Premier Doug Ford, and Greg Rickford, who is the province’s minister of northern development, mines, natural resources and forestry, as well as its minister of indigenous affairs.
“Both are massive supporters of critical minerals,” said Herbert. “Those things are important when you’re at the permitting and approval stage, and that’s exactly where we’re at. We’re able to leverage those relationships really well, and there’s just no better place to be at the moment.”
Watch the interview above for more from Herbert on Green Technology Metals and its plans for the next six months. You can also click here for our recap of PDAC, and here for our full PDAC playlist on YouTube.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Experts believe the positive long-term outlook for electric vehicles means lithium demand’s breather could just be temporary.
Lithium prices climbed over 400 percent last year, with other key battery raw materials such as cobalt and nickel also seeing prices rally as demand from the electric vehicle (EV) industry picked up pace.
But by the end of the first quarter, prices started to stabilize as demand took a breather, particularly in China, where the government has imposed lockdown measures to contain a new wave of COVID-19.
“We expect lithium and cobalt prices to peak this year, from dented but still strong demand and supply chain challenges,” Alice Yu of S&P Global Market Intelligence said at a recent webinar.
For the past year, the sharp rise in prices, which has seen lithium increase almost 130 percent year-to-date, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data, has pushed major lithium miners to restart idle capacity and outline expansion plans, with juniors also moving ahead with their projects.
For Yu, supply should ease in H2 and into 2023 as new capacities commission and ramp up. “These will pressure larger price corrections,” she said, adding that she expects the annual price to drop by a third in 2023. “Lower lithium prices will be good news for the downstream and lift some of the demand resistance we have seen so far.”
COVID-19 restrictions are behind the recent demand pullback seen in China, where the measures have impacted the entire supply chain, from the closing of factories to shipping and transportation networks.
“There are also constraints on Chinese lithium chemical exports to Japan and South Korea due to port and logistical challenges stemming from the lockdown,” Yu said.
Overall, Chinese vehicle sales for April plunged almost 48 percent compared to a year earlier due to lockdowns, as per data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Meanwhile, sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids in the country plunged 38.3 percent compared to the previous month, but jumped 45 percent year-on-year and more than doubled over the first four months of the year from 2021 levels.
According to the S&P Global Market Intelligence, plug-in EV sales across key markets China, Europe and the US were up 96 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, despite weaknesses in the overall vehicle market caused by the ongoing computer chip shortage.
The long-term EV sales outlook is positive, which means lithium's recent demand breather could be temporary.
“We don't know how long the lockdowns are going to last in China, but the underlying fundamentals are still there,” William Adams, head of base and battery metals research at Fastmarkets, said at a recent webinar. “The lithium market is very tight. We don't see that easing anytime soon.”
In fact, he added that to some extent the market may have seen some destocking coming into the pullback in prices. “So we could be set up for quite a sharp rebound once we see the end of lockdowns.”
Looking further ahead to mid-decade, in the period between 2023 and 2026, lithium prices are expected to remain above historical levels, and above prices in and before 2021, according to the S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“This is because the market expects a lithium deficit from 2024 onward, so a strong price environment will be needed to incentivize supply,” Yu said.
The high lithium price environment is accelerating product development and restarting idle operations, but whether they will be up and running fast enough is yet to be seen.
“One of the things which has surprised us is how long it has taken for some of the idle supply that was closed down during the weaker period into 2019 and 2020 to be reactivated,” Adams said.
Australia, Chile and Argentina dominate lithium production today, and they will lead the supply expansions, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“At the same time, there'll be more diverse locations of lithium production,” Yu said. “We expect Mexico, Canada and Finland to start or restart lithium production over the next five years, especially as North America and Europe and their PEV supply chains in these regions seek more localized sources of lithium.”
But it has been stated time and time again how long lithium projects can take to ramp up, and how many delays they can suffer, with COVID-19 restrictions just adding to the mix of challenges.
“There's no shortage of lithium, it's all about can you get it? Can the supply chain keep up with the demand side of it in the time that is needed?” Adams said.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, currently hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Housing the world’s largest deposits of lithium, Chile’s unique geological landscape and climate make it ideal for lithium brine extraction
As the world continues on the path towards a future dominated by clean energy, lithium’s importance only continues to grow. Demand for the battery metal has already reached an all-time high, increasing by 400 percent in 2021. What’s more, there is every indication that this growth will continue in 2022, with prices increasing by 126 percent in just the first quarter.
Currently, Australia and Chile are the two leading producers of lithium, respectively accounting for 46.3 percent and 23.9 percent of worldwide production. Both countries are jurisdictionally inclined to support the mining sector. However, Chile’s potential could one day see it outstrip even Australia where investment is concerned.
Housing the world’s largest deposits of lithium, Chile’s unique geological landscape and climate makes it ideal for lithium brine extraction. The country thus has a pivotal role to play in meeting demand and establishing a stable global supply chain.
A critical component of sustainability
Climate change is an undeniable problem, one which requires a collaborative effort to address. It is for this reason that governments around the world have all agreed to pursue full climate neutrality by 2050. Because combustion engines represent an inordinate percentage of greenhouse gas emissions, replacing them with electric vehicles (EV) is essential if any nation is to achieve their sustainability goals.
Lithium is used extensively in both consumer and professional electronics. It is also a staple metal in multiple other sectors, including mining, manufacturing and energy storage.
Given its cross-sector industrial importance, the battery metal was already in high demand.
The large-scale manufacturing of electric vehicles has caused this demand to increase exponentially. As multiple automotive manufacturers construct gigafactories to ramp up EV distribution, the need for lithium is growing well beyond our current production capacity.
Investors and mining companies can benefit by turning to jurisdictions like Chile to ramp up supply. The world’s migration towards a sustainable future simply cannot occur without lithium.
Lithium: Australia versus Chile
Although Australia houses impressive lithium reserves, the majority of the country’s stores occur in hard rock deposits. Mining these deposits is relatively inexpensive, but hard rock lithium operations also tend to have narrow margins compared to other methods. In particular, lithium brine extraction offers higher yields, greater efficiency and a lower overall environmental impact.
Currently, the largest lithium producer in Australia is Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS,OTC Pink:PILBF). Its flagship project, the Pilgangoora operation, is situated atop one of the world’s largest hard rock lithium deposits. It also jointly owns a pegmatite lithium project with Atlas Iron (ASX:AGO), the Mt Francisco project.
Geography represents Chile’s first major advantage over other jurisdictions. Alongside Bolivia and Argentina, Chile lays claim to a geographic region known as the Lithium Triangle. Located in the Andes in South America, it contains an estimated 68 percent of the world’s identified lithium resources.
The Lithium Triangle is home to a series of vast salt flats, beneath which sit incredibly lithium-rich brine pools. More promising still is the climate of the region, which is known for being incredibly hot and dry. This represents a considerable boon for extraction operations, which typically rely on evaporative processes.
A powerful investment opportunity
Chile’s mining sector has leveraged its arid geography to great effect. The country’s Salar de Atacama salt flat is the largest-producing brine deposit in the world. It is also home to several major lithium brine operations.
One of these is owned and operated by Albemarle (NYSE:ALB). Currently the largest business provider of lithium for electric vehicle batteries, Albemarle also operates a lithium carbonate plant at La Negra. According to an Albemarle spokesperson, the company has a long history in Chile backed by a unique contract.
SQM (NYSE:SQM) operates another major lithium brine operation in the salt flat. As the world’s largest lithium producer overall, the company recently announced plans to reduce brine extraction in the region by 50 percent by 2030. This announcement came in tandem with a commitment to reduce water usage across all its operations by 40 percent.
Finally, just south of Salar de Atacama is situated the highest-quality lithium pre-production project in Chile. Maricunga is jointly owned by Lithium Power International (ASX:LPI), Minera Salar Blanco and Li3 Energy. Situated just 250 kilometers from Chile’s coast, and 170 kilometers from the mining town of Copiapo, it’s said to possess characteristics directly comparable to Atacama. Maricunga is also adjacent to Highway 31, which connects Northern Chile to Argentina.
The most significant challenge to Chile’s growth, from an investment perspective, is sociopolitical. Although the country has a history of being relatively friendly towards the mining sector, its current government is exploring new legislation that could nationalize both copper and lithium. A new mining royalty bill is also in the works, which could increase tax rates by up to 80 percent.
It’s worth noting that not every investor considers the current political climate to be a risk. South32 (ASX:S32), a spinoff of BHP (ASX:BHP), recently invested US$1.55 billion to purchase a 45 percent stake in the Sierra Gorda copper mine, and a lithium auction held by Chile earlier this year saw Chinese manufacturing company BYD acquire extraction rights for 80,000 metric tons of lithium.
Takeaway
Chile is home to the largest, richest and most valuable lithium deposits in the world. For many investors, the high margins and low cost of lithium extraction in Chile more than make up for the potential of a few political speed bumps.
This INNSpired article is sponsored by Lithium Power International (ASX:LPI). This INNSpired article provides information that was sourced by the Investing News Network (INN) and approved by Lithium Power International in order to help investors learn more about the company. Lithium Power International is a client of INN. The company’s campaign fees pay for INN to create and update this INNSpired article.
This INNSpired article was written according to INN editorial standards to educate investors.
INN does not provide investment advice and the information on this profile should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. INN does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company profiled.
The information contained here is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. Readers should conduct their own research for all information publicly available concerning the company. Prior to making any investment decision, it is recommended that readers consult directly with Lithium Power International and seek advice from a qualified investment advisor.
Australia is rich in gold, and is home to many major mines. Here's a look at the top Australian gold mines flush with the yellow metal.
With Australia earning more accolades within the gold space and the price of gold hitting record highs in the last two years, investors may want to find out more about gold mines in the country.
Currently the second-largest gold-producing country in the world, Australia is home to top producers and gold mines.
Read on for a breakdown of the Australian gold market, as well as the largest gold mines that can be found throughout the area.
The region of Australia
As previously mentioned, Australia is currently the second-largest gold-producing country across the globe.
Global gold consumption is expected to rise annually at a rate of 5.7 percent until 2023, when it’s expected to reach 4,535 tonnes. Australia’s continued expansion projects and new developments in the gold sector will improve output and help the country maintain its position as a key player in the gold production market.
One of the more prolific gold mining areas in Australia is Western Australia.
Recent exploration activity in the Pilbara region of Western Australia has renewed interest and helped increase the country’s consistent gold output. While the Pilbara region is typically known as one of the world’s largest producers of iron ore, the region is currently in the midst of a small gold rush thanks to a major discovery in 2017 by Novo Resources (TSXV:NVO,OTCQX:NSRPF) and Artemis Resources (ASX:ARV,OTCQB:ARTTF).
In fact, gold was the second largest commodity in Western Australia by value in 2020 to 2021, behind iron ore, at a record of AU$17.3 billion in sales in 2020. In 2021, the metal saw sales of AU$16 million in the state.
The Fraser Institute also named Western Australia one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world, coming in first in 2021. The area has attracted major miners like Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,LSE:RIO,NYSE:RIO) and BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BLT) to the region. Covering more than half a million square kilometres (km), Western Australia’s Pilbara is one of the most resource-rich regions in the state.
Western Australia itself represents close to 60 percent of the country’s total gold output and some geologists have compared the geology of the Pilbara Craton with South Africa’s Kaapvaal Craton and Witwatersrand Basin. Witwatersrand is home to the Earth’s largest known gold reserves and is responsible for over 40 percent of worldwide gold production. Both the Pilbara and Witwatersrand are similar in age and composition, sitting on top of the Archean granite-greenstone basement. The Pilbara area hosts numerous small mesothermal gold deposits containing conglomerate gold — mineralization known to hold large, high-grade gold nuggets.
What are the top Australian gold mines?
Below is a guided tour of the top 10 largest gold mines in Australia in terms of gold output, according to the Aurum Analytics quarterly report on Australian and New Zealand gold operations.
1. Cadia Valley
Owned and operated by Newcrest (ASX:NCM,OTC Pink:NCMGF), Cadia is officially the biggest mine in Australia in terms of production. During the second quarter of 2021, the asset had an output of 194,757 ounces of gold.
The mine is made up of the Cadia East underground panel cave mine and the Ridgeway underground mine (currently in care and maintenance), which produce gold doré bars from a gravity circuit and gold-rich copper concentrates from a flotation circuit.
In October of 2019, the company announced approval of the Cadia expansion project, bringing it to the execution phase. This stage involves beginning development for the next cave (PC2-3). In December 2021, the company received approval to expand production to 35 million tonnes a year.
2. Boddington
Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM) became the sole owner of this open-pit mine in 2009.
The mine is located 16 kilometres from Boddington, Australia, and has an annual gold production of 709,000 attributable ounces. The mine is Western Australia’s biggest gold producer. In 2020, the asset produced 670,000 ounces of the yellow metal.
In addition to gold, the mine also produces copper, and at the end of 2020, it provided an output of 56 million attributable pounds of the base metal.
In 2021, the company announced that Boddington would have the industry’s first autonomous haulage fleet.
3. Fosterville
Fosterville is a high-grade, low-cost underground gold mine located in the state of Victoria, Australia. The Fosterville mine features growing gold production at increasingly high grades, as well as extensive in-mine and district scale exploration potential.
The mine has been operational since 1989, with a lifetime production of over 16 million ounces of gold. Additionally, in terms of scale, it is Australia’s largest mine and its pits encompass more than 5 square kilometres. It’s also one of the lowest cost gold mines in the world.
The asset, which is owned by Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM,NYSE:AEM), is the third-largest gold-producing mine in Australia, producing an impressive 157,993 ounces in Q2 2021.
4. KCGM
Northern Star (ASX:NST,OTC Pink:NESRF) owns Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM), which includes the Fimiston open pit, Mt Charlotte underground mine and Fimiston and Gidji processing plants.
Northern Star refers to the Fimiston open pit as a super pit because it has produced more than 50 million ounces of gold in the last 30 years.
The asset is located in the legendary Golden Mile, which was once reputed to be the richest square mile on earth. When fully developed, Kalgoorlie will be 3.6 kilometres long, 1.6 kilometres wide and up to 650 metres deep.
KCGM Operations had previously been joint-owned by Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX) and Newmont until both companies sold their interests, and the operations were handed entirely to Northern Star in June 2021.
5. Telfer
Another mine owned by Newcrest, Telfer is located in the eastern Pilbara and is one of the oldest in Australia. Between the years 1975 and 2000, the asset produced approximately 6 million ounces of gold until operations were suspended due to high operating costs.
Fortunately, production was able to restart in 2004, and the mine has since produced over 5 million ounces, with 416,000 ounces of gold in the 2021 financial year alone. The mine also produces copper, with an output of 16 tonnes in 2019.
In 2015, the company signed a land use agreement with the Martu people, which enabled work at the mine to continue in exchange for the Martu receiving AU$18 million over the course of five years with the addition of a further revenue-sharing agreement.
6. Tanami
Tanami has been fully owned and operated by Newmont since 2002, and it is located in the remote Tanami Desert of Australia. Additionally, both the mine and the plant are located on Aboriginal freehold land that is owned by the Warlpiri people and managed on their behalf by the Central Desert Aboriginal Lands Trust.
Tanami is a fly-in, fly-out operation in one of Australia’s most remote locations. The asset is 270 kilometres away from its closest neighbours, the remote Aboriginal community of Yuendumu. In 2020, Tanami produced 495,000 ounces of gold and reported 5.9 million ounces of gold reserves.
The Tanami Expansion 2 is currently underway to secure its future, potentially extending the mine life to 2040 and increasing annual gold production by an approximate 150 to 200 thousand ounces.
7. St. Ives
Owned and operated by Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI,JSE:GFI), St. Ives is both an open pit and underground mine, with two main open pits, and three underground mines.
In one of Gold Fields’ latest quarterly reports, it was revealed that St. Ives produced 393 tonnes of the yellow metal in 2021, up 2 percent from 385 tonnes in 2020.
8. Tropicana
Tropicana is co-owned by AngloGold Ashanti (ASX:AGG,NYSE:AU,OTC Pink:AULGF), which owns 70 percent, and Regis Resources (ASX:RRL), which owns the remaining 30 percent.
The mine spans 3,600 square kilometres, stretching over close to 160 kilometres in strike length along the Yilgarn Craton and Fraser Range mobile belt collision zone. The regional geology is dominated by granitoid rocks; it is a rare example of a large gold deposit within high grade metamorphic rocks that have undergone widespread recrystallisation and melting.
In 2021, Tropicana produced 265,000 ounces of gold with an all-in sustaining cost of AU$1,326 per ounce.
9. Jundee
Jundee is located in the increasingly sought-after Western Australia region and is owned by Northern Star after the miner purchased it from Newmont in 2014 for AU$82.5 million.
The project is well-known due to the fact that it solely uses underground mining and not the often utilized open pit mining. Jundee produces around 1.8 million tonnes of ore per year.
Most recently, the asset produced 83,562 ounces of gold in Q2 2021.
10. South Kalgoorlie Operations
The South Kalgoorlie Operations were acquired by Northern Star (ASX:NST,OTC Pink:NESRF) in 2018.
In the second quarter of 2021, the South Kalgoorlie Oerations produced 76,175 ounces of the precious metal.
How can you invest in Australian gold stocks?
Like all publicly listed stocks, gold companies issue shares that are available for investors to trade. When you purchase shares of a gold stock, you are essentially purchasing a stake in the company, making an investment with financial returns or losses from its profits.
There are two main ways that an investor can invest in gold mining stocks. The first way is when market participants purchase through a major mining company; the other way of trading on the stock market is by investing in a gold mining stock through a junior miner (a small cap stock).
Although no gold stock investing is 100 percent foolproof, backing a successful mining company in the precious metals space can alleviate some of the stress of a down stock market when you keep in mind that if a company’s share price goes down, it becomes more affordable to purchase and investors can more than likely anticipate that it will rise again and turn a profit.
While gold stocks are affected by some of the same factors that shape and shift the price of precious metals, they keep some distance from a direct correlation because it is possible for a gold miner and its stocks to be in a sound financial situation, even in a down market.
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2019.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Australia for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Matthew Flood, currently hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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